My Research

My main research interests are in the areas of Macroeconomics, International Finance, and time-series modeling.  From 2001-2007 I also wrote a monthly analysis of the Connecticut Leading and Coincident Employment indices for the Connecticut Economic Digest.

  “Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 39, no. 4, 2015, pp. 199-216.   (Appendix A is available from

“Non-Parametric Tests of Long Memory in Real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era.” Empirical Economics, vol. 39, no. 2, 2010, pp. 439 – 456. Published first online: August 2009. DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0312-8.

“The Power of the ‘Objective’ Bayesian Unit-Root Test.”  The Open Economics Journal, Vol. 2, 2009, pp.71-79.  DOI: 10.2174/1874919400902010071

“Non-Parametric Tests of Long Memory in Real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era.”  Empirical Economics, vol. 39, no. 2, 2010, pp. 439 – 456.   Published First online: August 2009.  DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0312-8.

[Working paper version] [Unpublished Appendix ]

“The Aggregate Demand for Private Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.” (with Carmelo Giaccotto and Rexford Santerre).   Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 76, no. 1, March 2009, pp. 133-157.

“Efficient Unit Root Tests of Real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era.”  Economics Bulletin, vol. 6, no. 7, 2003, pp. 1-12.

“Model Mis-specification and Johansen’s Cointegration Analysis:  An Application to the U.S. Money Demand.”  Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 24, no. 1, Winter 2002, pp. 51-66.

“The Linkage Between State and National Output:  A Case Study of Connecticut,” (with Maneechit Pattanapanchai).  The Review of Regional Studies, vol. 30, no. 2, Fall 2000, pp. 137-145.

“Testing Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity With a Bayesian Unit Root Approach:  The Experience of Canada in the 1950s.”  Applied Economics, vol. 29, 1997, pp. 813-819.

“Government Spending and Consumer Attitudes toward Risk, Time Preference, and Intertemporal Substitution:  An Econometric Analysis,” (with D. Hatzinikolaou).  Southern Economic Journal, vol. 61, April 1995, pp.1117-1126.

“Further Results on Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity in the 1920s.”  European Economic Review, vol. 34, 1990, pp. 913-919.

“The Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate in the 1920s:  An Empirical Investigation.” Southern Economic Journal, vol. 55, April 1989, pp. 924-914.

“Models of Business Cycles:  A Review Essay,” by Robert Lucas (with S.M. Miller).  Eastern Economic Journal, vol. 14, April-June 1988, pp. 197-202.

“A Comparison of the Stochastic Processes of Structural and Time‑Series Exchange‑Rate Models,” (with S.M. Miller).  The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 69, August 1987, pp. 496‑502.

Also reprinted in “The Structural Econometrics Time Series Analysis Approach,” edited by Arnold Zellner and Franz Palm, published by Cambridge University Press, 2004.

“A Problem With Estimating the Short‑Run Monetary Exchange Rate Model.”  Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 8, Spring 1986, pp. 213‑220.

“The Relationship Between Government Deficits, Money Growth, and Inflation,” (with S.M. Miller).  Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 7, Fall 1985, pp. 447‑467.

“The Predictive Performance of the Time‑Series Model and the Regression Model of the Income Velocity of Money:  Evidence from Five EEC Countries.” Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 8, September 1984, pp. 389‑415.

“International Currency Substitution:  A Reexamination of Brittain’s Econometric Evidence.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 16, November 1984, pp. 546‑556.

“A Time‑Series Analysis of the Relationship Between Income Velocity of Money and the Quantity of Money.” Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, vol. 23, Autumn 1984, pp. 3‑12.

“The Random Walk Hypothesis of the Velocity of Money:  Some Evidence from Five EEC Countries.” Economics Letters, vol. 9, 1982, pp. 365-369.

“A Study of the Labor Force Participation Rate of Single Women.” American Economist, Fall 1979, pp. 50‑55.

“Mexico:  The Open Economy ‑ A Note.” Review of Business and Economic Research, vol. 14, no. 1, Fall 1978, pp. 103‑107.


Working Papers:

�The Economies of the Great Lakes States�  Working Paper, Department of Economics.

Other Writing:
�The Trans-Pacific Partnership � Why It Matters,� an interview with David Bauman of UConn Communications. Published in UConn Today, May 6, 2015.
�How Free is Connecticut?� The Connecticut Economy, Spring 2012, pp. 3 � 5.

Book Review:

�Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series,� by Regina Kaiser and Agust�n Maravall.  Indian Economic Review, vol. 36, no. 1, January-June 2001, pp. 304 � 306.

“Inflation Stabilization:  The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico,” edited by Michael Bruno, Guido Di Tella, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Stanley Fischer.  Southern Economic Journal, vol. 56, April 1990, pp. 1133-1134.

“Labour Market Economics:  Theory, Evidence and Policy in Canada,” by Morley Gunderson.  Journal of Labor Research, vol. 3, Spring 1982, pp. 239‑241.

Papers in The Connecticut Economic Digest:


�Are Dark Clouds Thickening Over Connecticut?� July 2001.

�The Connecticut Economy Continues to Show Signs of a Slowdown�, August 2001.

�We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet�, September 2001.

�Terrorist Acts Cloud Connecticut�s Near-Term Outlook�, October 2001.

�The Slowdown in the Connecticut Economy Deepens After Terrorist Attacks�, November 2001.

�No Immediate Major Economic Impact on the Connecticut Economy from the September 11Events�,   December 2001.


�A Pleasant Surprise in October for the Connecticut Economy�, January 2002.

�The New Year Unfortunately Does Not Bring Good Cheers to the Connecticut Economy�, February 2002.

�Is the Connecticut Economy in a Recession?�, March 2002.

�Spring Brings Signs of Economic Revival in Connecticut�, April, and May 2002.

�Mixed Signals From the Connecticut Economy�, June 2002.

�A Glimmer of Optimism for the Connecticut Economy�, July 2002.

�Disarray on Wall Street, But Calm in Connecticut�, August 2002.

�Record Temperature Fails to Heat Up Connecticut�s Economy�, September 2002.

�Connecticut Economy Treaded Water in July�, October 2002.

�Some Positive Signs For the Connecticut Economy in August�, November 2002.

�Can Connecticut Sustain Its Recovery?� December 2002.


�The Connecticut Economy Continues to Struggle in October�, January 2003.

�Not Much to be Thankful For in November�, February 2003.

�How Did We Do in Year 2002?� March 2003.

�How Did We Do in Year 2002?  Part Two�, April 2003.

�The Connecticut Economy Continues to Tread Water in February�, May 2003.

�The Connecticut Economy Is As Cold As this Spring�s Weather�, June 2003.

�Sunnier Days Are Forecasted For Connecticut, But Will It Materialize?�, July 2003.

�Some Encouraging Signs in May, But Will It Continue?�, September 2003.

�Connecticut Economy Took a Detour in July�, October 2003.

�All Is Quiet As We Head Into the Fall�, November 2003.

�Mergers Create Uncertainty in Connecticut�s Job Picture�, December 2003.


�Steady But Modest Progress in 2003 for Connecticut�, January 2004.

�A Glow of Light in An Otherwise Cold Connecticut Winter�, February 2004.

�Something to Cheer About For 2003�, March 2004.

�A So-so Start to 2004 for Connecticut�s Economy�, April 2004.

�Like Spring in New England, Connecticut�s Economy is Warming up�, May 2004.

�Not a Kind First Quarter For Connecticut, But Better Days May Be Ahead� June 2004.

�Some Good Signs of Job Creation at the Start of the Second Quarter�, July 2004.

�The Employment Picture Continues to Improve in May�, August 2004.

�Little Progress Made in the First Half of 2004�, September 2004.

�Connecticut Continues Its Sluggish Growth in July�, October 2004.

�Signs of Economic Strength Are Difficult to Spot in Connecticut�, November 2004.

�Projected Budget Gaps for the Next Two Years May Spell Trouble for Connecticut�, December 2004.


�Encouraging News This Month May Not Add Up to Much For the Year�, January 2005.

�More of the Same:  We Are Not Sinking But We Are Not Swimming Either�, February 2005.

�2004 Was a Ho Hum Year for Connecticut�, March 2005.

�Connecticut Economy is in a Soft Patch since the Beginning of the Year�, May 2005.

�Good Employment Growth So Far This Year Eventhough the Connecticut Economy is Meandering�, June 2005.

�Connecticut Leads the Nation in Per Capita Income but Last in Employment Growth�, July 2005.

�Progress in the First Half of this Year Was Modest�, August 2005.

�We Are Moving At a Snail�s Pace in July�, September 2005.

�Slow But Steady Progress in August�, October 2005.

�Finally, a Month of Healthy Job Growth in Connecticut�, November 2005.

�Connecticut Lags the Nation in Labor Productivity Growth Since 2000�, December 2005.


�Connecticut Needs to Pay Attention to its Labor Productivity Growth�, February 2006.

�2005 was a good But Not an Outstanding Year for Connecticut�, march/April, 2006.

�After a So So 2005, Connecticut Has Gotten Off to a Promising Start in 2006�, May 2006.

�A Mixed Report Card for Connecticut in March�, June 2006.

�Is Sunnier Sky Ahead For Connecticut?� July 2006.

�Connecticut Continues to Grow In Spite of High Interest Rate and Energy Costs�, August 2006.

�A Robust First Half of 2006 For Connecticut�, September 2006.

�Will the Second Half Be As Good As the First For Connecticut?� October 2006.

�Signals Are Mixed, Connecticut�s Economy May Be Slowing�, November 2006.

�More of the Same � Positive but Slow Job Growth in Connecticut�, December 2006.


�We Will Have a Good 2006, But What Will Happen in 2007?� January 2007.

�Is the Party Over For Connecticut?� February 2007

�Steady but Unspectacular Gain in December�, March 2007.